The Internet process is growing very fast. The development of software and hardware in this century is very fast compared to the last century.
In 1943 Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM said: "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers". He was right - somehow - but in 2007 the 1 Billion computers limit was broken. How could Thomas Watson estimate so wrongly? The keyword is innovation. The development is not standing still.
Innovation is like a train. You have to get on the train to reach your goal. However, getting on the train together with your competitors does not give you any advantages. If you are not getting on the train it is even worse. Therefore, you have to get in front of the train to get to the goal at first. If you do that then you have all the costs yourself of course and you might not get at your goal at the right time - either too early or too late. Innovation has 3 important factors. The use of technology, need of your product or service as well as viable products. If you meet all 3 factors at the same time then you will have an innovative success.
At a Google search you can see that "innovation" is one of the most searched words. We are all trying to get business advantages so we go look for inspiration. Business managers are getting innovation training. A change of the organization might be needed too. The organization can be good at product management but maybe the organization is not good at creating innovative ideas. The major reason why innovation is so difficult is that only a few business managers are born to be an innovative talent.
Bill Gates is an Internet talent who has reached several impressive goals. But he was making a statement in 1981 where he said that 640K ought to be enough memory for anybody with a need of a computer. In the last years a CD-Rom has had the same amount of kilobytes.
Business men can make interesting statement now and then. Some mechanics did forecast the future computer weight in 1949 to be only 1.5 tons per computer. Have you weighted your netbook or mobile device lately?
The president and founder of Digital Equipment Cooperation Ken Olson did say in 1977 that there was no reason to buy a computer to home use. The development of broadband makes it possible for us to use our computers at work, on travel as well as home.
Ideas are current but products do only have their time. We can estimate about the future and experts are right very often when they estimate the use of products. However, estimates about the timing is very difficult to do.
About the Author:
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